TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 10:50 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on determining which team will score the most points in the third quarter of an upcoming professional football game. It specifically tracks scoring performance during that quarter, with a separate outcome for a tie if both teams finish with equal points.
This market determines the winner of the third quarter in the upcoming professional football game between the Buffalo Bills and the Los Angeles Rams, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026. The outcome depends solely on which team scores the most points during the third quarter of play. If one team outscores the other, that team's market resolves to 'Yes.' If both teams score an equal number of points in the quarter, all team-specific outcomes resolve to 'No,' and the 'Tie' outcome resolves to 'Yes.' Only points scored during the third quarter count toward these resolutions, and the broader game result or other quarters are irrelevant to this market.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines due to the influence of public opinion and varying information. Sportsbooks set initial odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market allows traders to incorporate a wider range of factors, including news, injuries, and even subtle game-day developments. Over time, the odds on Kalshi may converge with sportsbook odds as more information becomes available, but often, discrepancies remain, presenting potential opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome – a Bills win, a Rams win, or neither team winning the 3rd quarter. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective probability assessment of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time estimate of the likelihood of each scenario. The market's depth and volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in their predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The team that has the highest score at the end of the third quarter will be declared the winner. If the score is tied at the end of the third quarter, the 'Neither team wins' outcome will be considered the winner. The official NFL game statistics will serve as the basis for determining the winning team and resolving this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Bills or the Rams would likely cause shifts in the odds. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team’s style of play, could also move the market. In-game performance during the first and second quarters, such as a dominant offensive showing by one team, could influence trader sentiment and drive price adjustments. Unexpected strategic decisions by either coaching staff could also be a catalyst for movement in this market.