TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 10:50 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the total points scored by both teams during a specific quarter of a football game. Participants assess whether the combined scoring will exceed various thresholds, reflecting different expectations about the game's pace and offensive output.
All markets resolve based solely on the total points scored by both teams during the third quarter of the designated game. Each market has a specific threshold: if the combined score exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The thresholds range from 3.5 to 24.5 points, allowing participants to bet on varying levels of scoring intensity. Only points scored during the third quarter count, and the markets are independent of any other quarters' performance. The official game must be played as scheduled; if postponed or canceled, all markets will resolve as No.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their view. If a significant number of traders believe the sportsbook is undervaluing a particular outcome, the price on Kalshi will move accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Comparing these odds can offer a different perspective on the expected outcome of the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay for a contract that pays out if the 3rd quarter total falls within the specified range.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final total points scored in the 3rd quarter of the Bills-Rams game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an accurate and transparent outcome. Traders will be able to see the final result and any payouts associated with their positions shortly after the game concludes and the official data is available.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries to either the Bills or the Rams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to affect the passing or running game, could also shift the market. Furthermore, in-game performance during the first and second quarters, such as a dominant offensive showing by one team, could lead to adjustments in the perceived probability of different 3rd quarter total outcomes. Public betting trends and expert analysis can also contribute to price movements.