TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 10:50 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either the Buffalo Bills or the Los Angeles Rams specifically within the third quarter of their scheduled game. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team during that quarter alone.
These markets resolve based solely on the point differential between the Buffalo Bills and the Los Angeles Rams during the third quarter of their game scheduled for October 12, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold that the winning team must surpass for the contract to resolve as 'Yes'. For instance, markets requiring the Rams to win by more than 10.5, 7.5, 6.5, 3.5, or 2.5 points, or the Bills to win by more than 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points during the third quarter will resolve accordingly. Only points scored in the third quarter count toward these outcomes, meaning any points from other quarters are irrelevant. The contracts are independent of the overall game result, focusing exclusively on the third-quarter performance.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often aligning with but sometimes diverging from traditional sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set initial odds based on their own analysis, incorporating factors like team statistics and expert opinions. This market, however, is driven by traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the collective intelligence of prediction market participants. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information than sportsbooks.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where buyers and sellers set the price of contracts. Each contract represents a specific outcome regarding the Bills-Rams 3rd quarter spread. Traders buy 'yes' contracts if they believe the spread will fall in the range specified, and sell 'no' contracts if they believe it won't. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective predictions of all participants. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread for the 3rd quarter of the Bills-Rams game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics available from authoritative sports data sources. The market will determine which contracts pay out based on whether the actual 3rd quarter spread falls within the ranges defined by the contracts traded on Kalshi. The final spread will be the determining factor for payout.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Bills or the Rams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the passing or running game, could also shift predictions. In-game performance during the first and second quarters, and any adjustments to team strategies, might also lead to traders re-evaluating their positions. Unexpected announcements about coaching decisions or team morale could also play a role.