TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 11:49 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting whether a specific team will win by a certain margin in the latter half of a football game, including any overtime periods. The outcome depends entirely on the point differential after the second half begins.
All markets resolve based solely on the point difference in the second half (including overtime) of the specified game. If the LA Rams win by exceeding the designated point margin—ranging from 2.5 to 13.5 points—the corresponding 'Yes' outcome for Rams markets is triggered. Conversely, if the BUF Bills secure a win surpassing their specified margins (2.5 to 10.5 points), the respective 'Yes' outcome for Bills markets is triggered. Only points scored from the start of the second half through the end of regulation or overtime are considered; any points from the first half are irrelevant for resolution. All markets operate independently, with each threshold defining a separate condition for resolution.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on power rankings and expert analysis, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs, potentially leading to a more accurate forecast. Discrepancies can arise due to differing levels of information, biases, or simply variations in opinion. It is common to see this market adjust rapidly as new information becomes available and more traders participate.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the second half of the Bills-Rams game. The price of each contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people trade, the prices fluctuate, reflecting the collective prediction. The current price is determined by the forces of supply and demand, with buyers driving prices up and sellers driving them down.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread of the second half of the Bills-Rams game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics reported by a trusted sports data provider. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout of $1 per contract, minus any applicable fees.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Bills or the Rams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also impact the expected scoring and therefore the spread. In-game performance during the first half, such as a dominant showing by one team, could also shift predictions and cause the market to react accordingly. Unexpected coaching decisions or penalties could also be catalysts.