TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 8:57 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the first quarter of a football game between the Buffalo Bills and the Los Angeles Rams. Each market corresponds to a specific margin of victory for either team within that initial quarter.
These markets resolve based on the point differential in the first quarter of the designated Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Rams professional football game. Each market specifies a different threshold for how many points either team must win by during that quarter to resolve as 'Yes.' Only points scored in the first quarter count toward these outcomes. If the game is postponed or canceled without completing the first quarter, all markets will resolve as 'No.' The markets cover a range of margins from over 2.5 points up to over 10.5 points for each team, allowing participants to bet on varying degrees of dominance in the opening quarter.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. Often, prediction markets are considered more accurate than traditional forecasts, especially when they have sufficient volume. However, sportsbook odds are readily available and provide a useful benchmark for comparison, and discrepancies can present opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the actual 1st quarter spread will be above or below the listed price. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by supply and demand; if more people believe the spread will be higher, the price will rise, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date information available.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official 1st quarter spread of the Bills-Rams game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final, official spread as reported by a recognized sports data provider. Traders holding contracts on the correct side of the spread will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect side will forfeit their stake. The exact payout amount depends on the price of the contract at the time of resolution.
Several factors could influence this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Bills or the Rams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest unfavorable playing conditions, could also impact the spread. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could shift traders' expectations. Even public sentiment, as reflected in social media or expert analysis, can contribute to price fluctuations in this market.