TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 9:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This market asks whether the Buffalo Bills will win the first half of their game against the Los Angeles Rams by more than 2.5 points. Currently, the probability of this outcome occurring on Kalshi is 99.0%. The market will resolve based on the result of the first half of the BUF Bills vs LA Rams Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 12, 2026, as reported by the game’s official results. Keep a close eye on the game itself, as the market resolves following the conclusion of the first half on October 12, 2026.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential at the end of the first half of the designated game. If the Los Angeles Rams win by exceeding the specified point margin (ranging from 2.5 to 13.5 points), the corresponding "LA Rams wins by over X points" market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if the Buffalo Bills win by exceeding their specified margin (2.5 to 10.5 points), the respective "BUF Bills wins by over X points" market resolves to Yes. Markets are evaluated exclusively using points scored during the first half; any points from the second half or overtime are irrelevant. The outcome depends strictly on whether the actual point differential meets or exceeds the threshold defined for each market.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can sometimes differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market is driven by individuals trading on their own predictions. If there’s a significant discrepancy, it could indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome. It’s common to see prediction markets move more quickly to incorporate new information than sportsbooks, especially in response to breaking news or late-developing trends.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the first half of the Bills-Rams game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy into a particular spread, its price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of those trading on the event.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first half spread of the Bills-Rams game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the game’s governing body. Traders who hold contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout of $1 per contract, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will receive $0. The market’s final price will reflect the collective prediction of all traders leading up to the game’s conclusion.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Bills or the Rams would likely cause movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions impacting the passing or running game, could also shift the spread. Late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could also impact trading activity. Finally, large volume trades from informed participants could indicate a shift in market sentiment and trigger further price adjustments before Oct 13, 2026.