TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 8:04 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Inaki Montes and Toby Samuel in the Brest, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Inaki Montes' if Inaki Montes advances against Toby Samuel. This market will resolve to 'Toby Samuel' if Toby Samuel advances against Inaki Montes. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Inaki Montes and Toby Samuel in the Brest, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Inaki Montes' if Inaki Montes advances against Toby Samuel. This market will resolve to 'Toby Samuel' if Toby Samuel advances against Inaki Montes. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of bettors, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on their own analysis, while this market’s odds are driven by traders actively buying and selling contracts. This can lead to discrepancies, as prediction markets may incorporate information not fully accounted for by sportsbooks, or react more quickly to breaking news. It’s common to see differences in implied probabilities between the two, although they generally converge as the event approaches.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome of the Montes vs Samuel match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the contract price will rise, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date collective intelligence regarding the event.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Montes vs Samuel match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing tennis body, confirming which player won the match. Once the official result is available, Polymarket will finalize the market, and winning contracts will be redeemable for the corresponding payout based on the final market price at resolution. The outcome will be determined by the official match results.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Nov 3, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or unexpected developments in their recent performance could all shift trader sentiment. Updates on player fitness, training reports, or even weather forecasts impacting the match venue could lead to significant price movements. Furthermore, large volume trades on Polymarket from informed traders can also cause noticeable shifts in the odds, reflecting new information or strategic positioning.