TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 9:57 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Michael Vrbensky and Marek Gengel in the Bratislava 2, Slovakia, Qualifying, originally scheduled for November 1, 2026 at 6:20AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Michael Vrbensky' if Michael Vrbensky advances against Marek Gengel. This market will resolve to 'Marek Gengel' if Marek Gengel advances against Michael Vrbensky. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Michael Vrbensky and Marek Gengel in the Bratislava 2, Slovakia, Qualifying, originally scheduled for November 1, 2026 at 6:20AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Michael Vrbensky' if Michael Vrbensky advances against Marek Gengel. This market will resolve to 'Marek Gengel' if Marek Gengel advances against Michael Vrbensky. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on models and internal analysis, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies emerge, particularly when public sentiment strongly deviates from the sportsbook's initial assessment. Comparing the two can be a useful exercise for informed decision-making, but remember that each represents a distinct form of forecasting.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts dynamically, reflecting the evolving consensus. The current implied probability of a particular outcome is determined by the share price relative to $1, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance of success.
This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Vrbensky vs Gengel match, as determined by the governing body of the sport. The platform will verify the result against publicly available sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the final outcome of this competition.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. Any news regarding the players' form, potential injuries, or changes in coaching strategies could significantly shift the odds. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players, or broader trends within the sport, might also impact trader sentiment. Public announcements, expert analysis, and even social media discussions can all contribute to price movements. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding how this market evolves leading up to the Nov 8, 2026 resolution.