TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 7, 8:31 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Bragantino will win their professional Brasileiro Serie A soccer game against Mirassol. Currently, Kalshi gives Bragantino a 70.5% probability of winning, while a tie is priced at 23.0%. The market resolves based on the result of the game originally scheduled for Oct 7, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as reported by the official game results. Keep a close eye on the kickoff of the match on October 7, 2026, as the outcome of regular time will determine settlement.
The event resolves based on the result of the Bragantino vs Mirassol professional Brasileiro Serie A soccer game scheduled for October 7, 2026. If Bragantino wins after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, the Bragantino market resolves to Yes. If Mirassol wins under the same conditions, the Mirassol market resolves to Yes. If the game ends in a tie after regular time, the Tie market resolves to Yes. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets resolve to a fair price. Extra time and penalty shootouts are excluded from consideration for market resolution.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of bettors, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by professional oddsmakers, while this market is driven by individual traders expressing their beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or when public opinion strongly favors a particular outcome. Analyzing these differences can be insightful, as prediction markets sometimes anticipate shifts in sentiment before sportsbooks adjust their lines.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Bragantino vs Mirassol match. The price of each contract reflects the market's current assessment of its probability. As more traders buy contracts for a specific outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity influence the bid-ask spread, indicating the cost of immediate execution. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities.
This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be based on the official result of the Bragantino vs Mirassol match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The platform will verify the outcome against these sources to determine which contracts will pay out. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the winning outcome will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 8, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, changes in coaching staff, or even weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team lineups or strategic changes could also lead to significant price movements. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed traders or shifts in public perception—perhaps driven by pre-match analysis—can all impact the market's assessment of the likely outcome of the Bragantino vs Mirassol match.