TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 6:45 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the point differential in a college football game between Bowling Green and Miami (OH). Each market corresponds to a specific margin of victory, allowing participants to speculate on how decisively one team might win.
All markets resolve based on the official final point differential of the Bowling Green vs Miami (OH) college football game scheduled for October 3, 2026. If Miami (OH) wins by a margin exceeding the specified threshold in any market labeled 'Miami (OH) wins by over X points,' that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Conversely, if Bowling Green wins by more than the specified margin in any market labeled 'Bowling Green wins by over X points,' that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. For markets where the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, resolution is based on the final result of the rescheduled game. If the game does not start within 48 hours of its original schedule, all affected markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants under these contingency conditions.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for a profit margin, while this market is driven by individuals trading on their own predictions. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it could indicate that traders believe the sportsbook is mispricing the game. It’s common to see convergence as the event approaches, with both sets of odds becoming more aligned.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread being the final result. As more traders buy contracts for a particular spread, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, providing a real-time assessment of the game's likely outcome as perceived by those trading on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be based on the actual point spread of the Bowling Green vs Miami game, as determined by official game statistics. The market will settle to 100 for the contract corresponding to the correct spread, and 0 for all other contracts. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout of 100 minus the commission paid when they initially purchased it.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. News regarding key player injuries for either Bowling Green or Miami (OH) would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team's style of play, could also shift the market. Late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale might also cause traders to adjust their positions. Any substantial betting activity in traditional sportsbooks could also influence trading on Kalshi.