TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 15, 4:53 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional Europa League soccer match between Bournemouth and Sturm Graz, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold. These thresholds vary depending on which team wins and by how many goals they triumph.
The event resolves based on the goal differential by which either Bournemouth or Sturm Graz wins the match originally scheduled for October 15, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. Four distinct outcome thresholds define resolution: Bournemouth winning by more than 2.5 goals, Bournemouth winning by more than 1.5 goals, Sturm Graz winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Sturm Graz winning by more than 2.5 goals. If any of these conditions are met for the respective team, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The rules clarify that Kalshi has no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, but may also incorporate a margin for profit. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading based on their own research and beliefs, potentially leading to a more accurate assessment of the true probability of an outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamic nature of trading activity as new information becomes available. It is common to see prediction markets move faster than sportsbooks in response to breaking news.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price converges towards what the collective believes is the fair value. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The spread is determined by the difference in prices between contracts representing a win for either team, and traders can profit by correctly anticipating the final result. The current price reflects the aggregate opinion of all participants trading on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz match, as reported by official sports data providers. The market will determine which side of the spread was correct, and payouts will be issued accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand how this market will settle. It is important to note that the resolution process relies on verifiable data, ensuring a transparent and accurate outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Bournemouth or Sturm Graz would likely impact the spread, as would changes in team form or tactical approaches. Unexpected weather conditions on match day could also influence the outcome and therefore the market price. Major announcements related to team management or ownership could also create volatility. Finally, significant shifts in public sentiment, reflected in betting patterns or expert analysis, could drive price movements in this market.