TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Sep 30, 12:00 PM EST
Predict
This prediction group covers various spread and over/under markets for the FIFA International Friendlies game between Botswana and Mozambique on September 30th. Markets range from point spreads on either team winning by a certain margin to total goals scored, and first/second half outcomes.
More markets for the FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for September 30 at 10:00 AM ET.
More markets for the FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for September 30 at 10:00 AM ET.
Prediction market odds, like those found for this market, often reflect a more accurate assessment of probabilities than traditional sportsbooks. This is because prediction markets incentivize participants to reveal their true beliefs, while sportsbooks may incorporate a 'vig' or commission that skews the odds. While sportsbooks set odds based on their own analysis and risk management, this market aggregates the opinions of many individuals, potentially leading to more efficient price discovery. However, sportsbook odds can still be a useful comparison point, particularly for understanding public perception and identifying potential value discrepancies.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Predict for the Botswana vs. Mozambique match can arise from several factors. These platforms have different user bases, trading volumes, and risk appetites, all of which influence price discovery. Furthermore, each platform may incorporate information or interpret available data differently, leading to varying probabilities. The differing market structures and liquidity profiles of Polymarket and Predict also contribute to these divergences. While Polymarket currently favors Spread: Botswana (-2.5) at 98%, Predict leans toward Spread: Botswana (-1.5) with no available percentage.