TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 7:01 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Botafogo and Chapecoense in Brazil's top-tier league. The result depends solely on who wins the match within the regular 90 minutes plus any added stoppage time, without considering extra time or penalty shootouts. If the match ends in a tie, a separate outcome is designated.
The event resolves based on the full-time result of the Botafogo vs Chapecoense Brasileiro Serie A soccer match scheduled for October 17, 2026, determined after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time awarded by the referee. A win for either Botafogo or Chapecoense within this timeframe will resolve the respective market to 'Yes.' If the match concludes in a tie under the same conditions, the 'Tie' market resolves to 'Yes.' Should the game be canceled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined per the platform’s guidelines. The event exclusively considers regular-time results, excluding extra time or penalty shootout outcomes.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, and can differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their odds based on their own models and to balance their risk, while this market’s prices are determined by individuals trading on their own information and beliefs. Generally, prediction markets tend to be more accurate than traditional polls or expert forecasts, but it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities of an outcome and are subject to change as new information becomes available. Comparing these probabilities can offer a broader perspective on the potential result.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived likelihood of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price represents the cost to purchase a contract that pays out if the corresponding outcome occurs. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to dynamic price fluctuations based on new information and evolving sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Botafogo vs Chapecoense match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The specific outcome that triggers payout will depend on the contract purchased – whether it’s a Botafogo win, a Chapecoense win, or a draw. Traders will be able to see the final result and any associated payouts on the Kalshi dashboard following the conclusion of the match.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 18, 2026. Any news regarding team injuries, suspensions, or changes in coaching staff could significantly shift expectations. Unexpected weather conditions at the match location could also play a role. Furthermore, performance in recent matches, changes in team form, and even public sentiment expressed through media coverage or social media can all contribute to price movements. Major upsets in other relevant soccer leagues might also indirectly impact trader confidence and affect the volume traded in this market.