TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 9:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on the total number of goals scored in a Brasileiro Serie B soccer match between Botafogo and Ceara. The game occurs on October 12, 2026, and various thresholds determine if the market resolves based on the final goal count after regulation time.
There are six separate markets, each corresponding to a different goal threshold (over 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, or 5.5 goals). A market resolves to Yes if the total goals scored by both teams combined exceeds the specified threshold after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty kicks are excluded from the count.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading based on their own information and analysis. As more information becomes available – such as team news or weather forecasts – the prediction market odds can adjust more rapidly and efficiently than traditional sportsbook odds, potentially offering a more accurate forecast of the final result.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the total goals scored in the Botafogo vs Ceara match. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on new information, leading to a dynamic price discovery process. The market’s efficiency comes from the incentive structure, encouraging traders to reveal their true beliefs.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final outcome will be determined by the total number of goals scored in the Botafogo vs Ceara match, as officially recorded by the governing sporting body. The resolution will be based on the official match statistics, ensuring a transparent and verifiable process. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their chosen outcome aligned with the final result.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Botafogo or Ceara would likely cause price movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the style of play, could also shift the market. Late-breaking team news, such as starting lineups, and even public sentiment shifts based on pre-match analysis could all contribute to changes in the price of contracts within this market. Unexpected tactical decisions by either manager could also play a role.