TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 12:02 PM EST
Kalshi
This event focuses on the margin of victory in the Bologna vs Monza match. Analysts will assess team strategies and player form to predict whether either side can secure a dominant win.
Markets resolve based on the goal differential if Bologna or Monza wins the professional Serie A soccer game scheduled for October 31, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. A market resolves to 'Yes' if Bologna wins by more than 2.5 or 1.5 goals, or if Monza wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. The outcome depends solely on the official match result and the difference between goals scored by the winning and losing teams.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set lines based on their models and risk management, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between prediction market prices and sportsbook odds, it might suggest that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular result. It’s valuable to compare both to form a well-rounded view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective probability of that outcome occurring. As more people buy contracts for a specific result, the price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available and traders update their beliefs. This creates a real-time assessment of the likelihood of each possible result in the Bologna vs Monza match.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Bologna vs Monza match, specifically the spread. The final score difference will be compared to the spread offered in this market to determine winning contracts. The platform will verify the results against widely available and trusted sources to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution process.
Several factors could influence this market before Oct 31, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either Bologna or Monza would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions on match day could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about key personnel or significant shifts in public opinion, as reflected in sports news and analysis, could also drive price fluctuations. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding how the market evolves.