TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 5:41 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between two teams in a State Cup competition. The result is determined based on the final score after the standard playing time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts. Participants can speculate on which team will win or if the game will end in a draw.
The event resolves based on the result of the Bnei Yehuda vs Ashdod professional State Cup soccer match originally scheduled for October 28, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Three possible outcomes are considered: Bnei Yehuda win, Ashdod win, or a tie. If the match ends in a tie after regular time, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform rules. The resolution excludes extra time and penalty shootout results, focusing solely on the standing time outcome.
Prediction market odds often differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines to balance action and ensure profit, factoring in a 'vig' or commission. This market, however, is driven by the collective predictions of traders who are incentivized to accurately assess the probability of each outcome. As a result, prediction market prices can sometimes be more efficient and reflective of true probabilities, though discrepancies can occur due to differing information or risk appetites. It is common to see differences in the implied probabilities compared to what sportsbooks are offering.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's current assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will climb, and vice-versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a real-time probability estimate.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Bnei Yehuda vs Ashdod match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual event result. Traders holding contracts on the winning outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 28, 2026. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in coaching staff, or significant shifts in team form could impact trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions on match day could also play a role. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed traders, or even public perception shifts based on pre-match analysis, can all contribute to price movements. Monitoring these signals can help you understand potential shifts in the market’s assessment of the likely outcome.