TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution sources and methodologies. Kalshi resolves based on 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) at exactly 5 PM EDT on March 31, 2026, across 80 separate price thresholds. Polymarket resolves based on Chainlink BTC/USD data stream comparing price at 4:00 PM ET to price at 8:00 PM ET on the same date, with a simple directional outcome (Up/Down).Hero Tip:
These markets are NOT interchangeable. If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on a specific BRTI price level at 5 PM EDT. If you trade on Polymarket, you are betting on whether Bitcoin's Chainlink price rises or falls over a 4-hour window. The same Bitcoin price movement could resolve differently on each platform due to source divergence (CF Benchmarks BRTI vs. Chainlink BTC/USD) and timing divergence (single 5 PM snapshot vs. 4 PM-to-8 PM comparison). Arbitrage is theoretically possible but carries execution and source-reconciliation risk.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) as the sole resolution source, measuring a 60-second simple average immediately before 5 PM EDT on March 31, 2026. The market contains 80 separate binary outcomes, each tied to a specific BRTI threshold (ranging from 57,499.99 to 77,249.99). Each threshold triggers a YES resolution if the BRTI average exceeds that level. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket uses Chainlink's BTC/USD data stream as the sole resolution source and measures directional price movement over a 4-hour window (4:00 PM ET to 8:00 PM ET on March 31). The market resolves to UP if the closing price is greater than or equal to the opening price, and DOWN otherwise. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to Down. The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD data stream.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.15.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.