TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$257,828,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,664,501
579,454
Markets across
14,299
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,106
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, timing windows, and measurement methodologies. Polymarket resolves based on Chainlink BTC/USD price comparison over a 4-hour window (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET on March 25), while Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) averaged over 60 seconds before 5:00 PM EDT on March 25, 2026—a single point-in-time measurement at a different time. Additionally, Kalshi presents 60 separate binary markets with different price thresholds, creating structural incompatibility with Polymarket's single up/down comparison market.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. Polymarket measures price movement over a 4-hour window using Chainlink data; Kalshi measures a single 60-second average at 5 PM using CF Benchmarks BRTI. Bitcoin could move significantly between 5 PM and 8 PM, or the two price sources could diverge. If you trade both platforms, treat them as separate bets with different risk profiles and settlement mechanics.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier: Resolves YES ('Up') if BTC/USD price at 8:00 PM ET is greater than or equal to the price at 4:00 PM ET on March 25, using Chainlink's BTC/USD data stream as the sole source. This is a single binary market measuring price movement over a 4-hour window. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.'Kalshi:
Outlier: Resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5:00 PM EDT on March 25, 2026 exceeds a specified threshold. Kalshi offers 60 separate markets, each with a different price threshold ranging from 60,899.99 to 80,649.99. Each market is a binary YES/NO based on whether BRTI exceeds its specific threshold at a single point in time (5 PM). Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
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