TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Will Bitcoin be up at July 9, 5PM ET?

Volume:
$3,111,240

$63,250 or above

 - Kalshi

$63,250 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 9, 2026

Closed: Jul 9, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$63,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$824,175
N/A
N/A
$209,833
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$63,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$455,651
N/A
N/A
$195,439
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$300,438
N/A
N/A
$42,198
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$268,465
N/A
N/A
$102,219
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$184,491
N/A
N/A
$36,082
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$150,156
N/A
N/A
$42,297
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$55,274
N/A
N/A
$24,176
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$52,593
N/A
N/A
$25,848
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$50,082
N/A
N/A
$9,014
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$32,066
N/A
N/A
$11,613
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$17,839
N/A
N/A
$15,470
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$14,642
N/A
N/A
$11,097
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,683
N/A
N/A
$3,611
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,824
N/A
N/A
$5,194
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$59,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,635
N/A
N/A
$7,260
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$59,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,490
N/A
N/A
$4,090
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$51,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,338
N/A
N/A
$2,338
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$52,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,855
N/A
N/A
$1,855
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$58,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,648
N/A
N/A
$1,623
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$59,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,354
N/A
N/A
$1,088
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$59,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,133
N/A
N/A
$1,130
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$53,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,122
N/A
N/A
$1,122
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$58,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$637
N/A
N/A
$637
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$52,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$374
N/A
N/A
$374
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$51,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$187
N/A
N/A
$187
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 81

Intro

This market tracks whether Bitcoin's price will be higher or lower at 5 PM ET on July 9, 2026, compared to its opening price at that time. The aggregated consensus across Polymarket and Kalshi shows a 15.5% probability for the leading outcome, with price data sourced from Binance's BTC/USDT pair. Watch the specific moment on July 9, 2026 at 5 PM ET when the resolution window closes, as this is when the final price comparison will be locked in to determine the outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use different price indices (Binance BTC/USDT candle vs. CF Benchmarks BRTI), different measurement windows (1-hour candle close vs. 60-second average), and different resolution structures (single binary vs. 80 tiered binaries). These differences mean the same underlying price movement may resolve differently on each platform.Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets with different risk profiles. Polymarket is simpler and more liquid but tied to Binance spot data. Kalshi offers granular price-level exposure but requires you to pick a specific threshold contract. Cross-platform arbitrage is not straightforward due to index and timing differences.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary directional market. Resolves to Up if the close price of the BTC/USDT 1-hour candle (beginning at 5 PM ET on July 9) is greater than or equal to the open price. Otherwise resolves to Down. Uses Binance BTC/USDT pair as sole source. Single outcome per market.
  • Kalshi: 80 separate binary markets, each tied to a specific price threshold of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI). Each market resolves Yes if the 60-second simple average of BRTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds its threshold; otherwise No. Thresholds range from 51,499.99 to 70,999.99 in 250-unit increments.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on July 9, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution to Yes if the 60-second average exceeds the threshold specified for that outcome. The official price is calculated as the average of all 60 RTI prices collected during the final minute before market expiration.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds represent trader conviction about future price direction, not current spot price. When this market shows strong odds favoring one direction, it signals aggregate expectation among participants, though spot price can move independently based on real-time demand. Prediction markets often price in forward-looking sentiment and tail-risk scenarios that spot markets may not fully reflect. Comparing odds across platforms helps identify where consensus is strongest and where uncertainty remains highest.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different market structures, user bases, and liquidity profiles. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket typically attracts global retail traders with lower barriers to entry, while Kalshi serves primarily U.S.-regulated participants. Differences in fee structures, order-book depth, and time-zone activity can cause temporary price divergence. These gaps create arbitrage opportunities and reflect how decentralized versus regulated venues price the same event differently based on their participant mix and operational rules.