TOTAL VOLUME:

$61.9b

24H VOL:

$277,664,645

24H TRANSACTIONS:

600,114,870

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,379,707,856

581,715

Markets across

14,439

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,118

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

50%

VS.

Kalshi:

50%

BETA
polymarket
kalshi
Trending
Crypto

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5PM ET? Odds & Prediction Markets

Volume:
$138,513
PredictionHero
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5PM ET 0%
polymarket
Bitcoin price range on Apr 28, 2026? 100%
kalshi
Bitcoin price range on Apr 28, 2026? 0%
kalshi
Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Jun…020406080100

Closed: Apr 28, 5:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Outcome
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Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue:

Polymarket and Kalshi use incompatible price sources (Binance BTC/USDT spot candle vs. CF Benchmarks BRTI index) and measurement windows (1-hour candle close vs. 60-second average), creating potential for non-aligned resolutions despite both referencing April 28, 5 PM ET.

Hero Tip:

Treat these as two separate markets tracking related but distinct price signals. Polymarket is a simple binary (up or down); Kalshi is a granular price-band prediction. Cross-platform basis trades are possible if Binance spot and BRTI index diverge. Confirm BRTI index composition and exact UTC/EDT conversion before settlement.

Critical Divergence Points:

  • Polymarket:

    Binary up/down resolution based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves UP if close >= open, DOWN otherwise. Single exchange, single pair, single candle. Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'

  • Kalshi:

    80-way price-band resolution based on CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) 60-second simple average before 5 PM EDT. Resolves YES if BRTI falls within any of 80 discrete $250 bands (67750-67999.99 through 87249.99+). Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between [range]...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.15.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.