TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Bilbao vs Real Sociedad
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What is the result of Bilbao vs Real Sociedad?

Volume:
$3,017,943

Bilbao

 - Kalshi

Bilbao - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 4:58 PM EST

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Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Bilbao

View
100%
56%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,101,367
N/A
N/A
$564,572
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Real Sociedad

0%
30%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,321,997
N/A
N/A
$811,235
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$594,580
N/A
N/A
$336,042
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Intro

This market tracks whether Bilbao or Real Sociedad will win their professional La Liga soccer game. Currently, Kalshi gives Bilbao a 99.0% probability of winning, while Real Sociedad is at 1.0%. The market resolves based on the result of the match after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as determined by the official result of the game, according to Kalshi. Keep an eye on the kickoff of the match itself on November 1, 2026, as that will begin the window for determining the winner and resolving this market.

Kalshi

The markets resolve based on the full-time result of the Bilbao vs Real Sociedad La Liga match scheduled for November 1, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. A 'Yes' outcome occurs when the specified team wins, while the 'Tie' market resolves to 'Yes' if the game ends level. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price following platform procedures. The markets are independent of official league affiliations, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Basque Derby market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. You can see how the implied probabilities of different outcomes have shifted over time, and gauge market interest through the volume of $2,554,011 traded in the last day. Total volume for this market currently stands at $2,856,131. This provides a clear picture of where traders are placing their bets and how sentiment is evolving as the match approaches. The dashboard is a central hub for monitoring activity in this particular market.

Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market represents the aggregated beliefs of individuals willing to put their money behind their predictions. It’s common to see differences emerge, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts. Comparing the two can be a useful exercise for informed decision-making, though discrepancies don't necessarily indicate one is 'right' and the other 'wrong'; they simply represent differing viewpoints.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Bilbao versus Real Sociedad match. The final score, as reported by official sources, will determine which outcome corresponds to the correct prediction. Traders holding contracts for the winning outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution. It’s important to note that the resolution process relies on publicly available and verifiable information.

Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Bilbao or Real Sociedad would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team lineups closer to the match date are also likely to cause volatility. Furthermore, major upsets in other relevant matches or broader football news could indirectly affect the perceived probabilities and therefore the prices within this market.