TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 4:58 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Bilbao or Real Sociedad will win their professional La Liga soccer game. Currently, Kalshi gives Bilbao a 99.0% probability of winning, while Real Sociedad is at 1.0%. The market resolves based on the result of the match after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as determined by the official result of the game, according to Kalshi. Keep an eye on the kickoff of the match itself on November 1, 2026, as that will begin the window for determining the winner and resolving this market.
The markets resolve based on the full-time result of the Bilbao vs Real Sociedad La Liga match scheduled for November 1, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. A 'Yes' outcome occurs when the specified team wins, while the 'Tie' market resolves to 'Yes' if the game ends level. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price following platform procedures. The markets are independent of official league affiliations, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market represents the aggregated beliefs of individuals willing to put their money behind their predictions. It’s common to see differences emerge, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts. Comparing the two can be a useful exercise for informed decision-making, though discrepancies don't necessarily indicate one is 'right' and the other 'wrong'; they simply represent differing viewpoints.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Bilbao versus Real Sociedad match. The final score, as reported by official sources, will determine which outcome corresponds to the correct prediction. Traders holding contracts for the winning outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution. It’s important to note that the resolution process relies on publicly available and verifiable information.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Bilbao or Real Sociedad would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team lineups closer to the match date are also likely to cause volatility. Furthermore, major upsets in other relevant matches or broader football news could indirectly affect the perceived probabilities and therefore the prices within this market.