TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Tour
All
Companies
Best Chinese AI Company end of July?
polymarket

Best Chinese AI Company end of July?

Volume:
$1,040,781

Alibaba

 - Polymarket

Alibaba - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 31, 2026

Closed: Jul 31, 5:34 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Alibaba

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$276,942
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Moonshot

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$314,857
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

DeepSeek

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$125,691
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Z.ai

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$109,694
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Baidu

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$61,387
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

MiniMax

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$45,186
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Xiaomi

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$39,098
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Tencent

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,731
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

ByteDance

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,730
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Meituan

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,167
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

StepFun

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,297
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company A

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company B

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company C

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company D

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company E

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company F

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company G

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company H

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company I

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company J

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company K

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company L

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company M

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25

Intro

This market tracks which company will own the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026 on Polymarket, with Alibaba currently at 100.0% and Moonshot at 0.1%, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard. The outcome will be determined by the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies as listed on July 31, 2026. Watch for the leaderboard update on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET, which will finalize the rankings and resolve this market.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

The Best Chinese AI Company end of July dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for the top contenders in China's AI sector as of end of July 2026. The interface displays the current probability for each outcome, 24-hour trading volume via $101,674, and cumulative event volume of $1,040,781. Users can monitor how market sentiment shifts as new model releases, benchmark results, and competitive announcements emerge. The dashboard updates continuously, allowing traders and observers to see which Chinese AI company the market currently favors to lead by the resolution date.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money consensus from traders betting on which Chinese AI company will be best by end of July 2026, whereas analyst forecasts typically rely on qualitative assessments of model capability, funding, and roadmap credibility. Markets often price in forward-looking signals—such as upcoming model releases and benchmark performance—faster than traditional analyst reports. Comparing Polymarket odds to published research from AI labs and technology analysts can reveal where the market diverges from expert opinion, potentially highlighting underpriced or overpriced outcomes based on new technical developments or competitive positioning.

Key catalysts include major model releases and benchmark announcements from leading Chinese AI labs, with new state-of-the-art results on reasoning or multimodal tasks likely to shift market odds significantly. Funding rounds and strategic partnerships can signal competitive momentum and resource commitment. International AI competitions and academic publications showcasing model performance will influence trader perception of which company leads. Regulatory developments in China affecting AI development timelines, as well as geopolitical events impacting tech competition, may also reshape expectations. Real-time performance comparisons on standardized benchmarks will be the primary driver of price movement through Jul 31, 2026.