TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 22, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on the margin of victory in an upcoming Europa League soccer match between Besiktas and Crystal Palace. Each market evaluates different thresholds for how many goals the winning team must score beyond the opponent to settle the outcome. The results depend solely on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The markets collectively assess various goal-differential scenarios for the Besiktas vs Crystal Palace Europa League match scheduled for October 22, 2026. Resolution is based exclusively on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty kicks are disregarded. Four distinct thresholds define a 'Yes' outcome: Besiktas winning by more than 2.5 goals, Besiktas winning by more than 1.5 goals, Crystal Palace winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Crystal Palace winning by more than 2.5 goals. Any market not meeting its specific differential requirement resolves to 'No.' All markets operate independently, and Kalshi explicitly states no official affiliation with the governing league or its intellectual property.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, which can differ from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on statistical models and their own risk assessment, while this market allows individuals to express their beliefs about the outcome. Historically, prediction markets have demonstrated an ability to be more accurate than traditional polls or analyst predictions, though it’s important to remember past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Examining the difference between this market and sportsbook lines can reveal where public opinion diverges from professional analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, leading to dynamic price changes. The market depth indicates the volume of contracts available at different price points, showing the strength of conviction behind various predictions. This creates a real-time assessment of the potential result.
This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread in the Besiktas vs Crystal Palace match will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on the official result as reported by the governing sports authorities and widely available through sports news outlets. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final result of the match.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either Besiktas or Crystal Palace would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact the perceived probabilities. Major announcements related to the match, such as changes in the starting lineups or unexpected team news, would also be key catalysts. Overall, any information that alters the perceived likelihood of different outcomes for the Besiktas vs Crystal Palace match could shift the price of contracts in this market.