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410,833

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4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

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63%

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Belgium vs. Poland
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Belgium vs. Poland?

Volume:
$414,886

Belgium

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 9, 2026

Closed: Oct 9, 4:14 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Belgium

View
100%
45%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$273,555
N/A
N/A
$132,427
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Belgium

View
100%
48%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$16,432
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Poland

View
0%
18%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$76,939
N/A
N/A
$52,329
Settled
No
polymarket

Poland

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,607
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$44,286
N/A
N/A
$29,928
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Belgium vs. Poland)

View
0%
23%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,067
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks whether Belgium will win their FIFA Women's World Cup Qualifier match against Poland on October 9, 2026. Currently, the aggregated probability of Belgium winning is 100.0%, with Poland winning at 0.1%. This consensus view combines data from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will resolve based on the official result reported by https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/womens/womensworldcup. Keep an eye on the match itself on October 9, 2026, to see if the outcome aligns with the strong current expectation for a Belgium victory.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket explicitly defines resolution for game cancellation, while Kalshi does not, creating a discrepancy in potential outcomes.Hero tip: Be aware that Polymarket markets will resolve 'No' for a win/loss market or 'Yes' for a draw market if the game is canceled, while Kalshi's resolution is undefined in that scenario.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Markets resolve to 'No' (win/loss) or 'Yes' (draw) if the game is canceled entirely with no make-up game. Resolution is based on the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
  • Kalshi: Markets resolve based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit rule is provided for game cancellation.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming UEFA Women's World Cup Qualification game, scheduled for Friday, October 9, 2026 between Belgium and Poland.

Kalshi

The markets resolve based on the full-time result of the Belgium vs Poland women's FIFA World Cup qualifier scheduled for October 9, 2026, determined after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, but not including extra time or penalty kicks. A 'Yes' outcome for either Belgium or Poland occurs only if that specific team secures a victory during this regulation period. If the teams finish level at the end of regulation time, the 'Tie' market resolves to 'Yes.' Should the match be canceled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will instead resolve at a fair price, as determined per platform policy. The markets are independent of any official league affiliations, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the nature of how each is determined. Sportsbooks set lines based on statistical models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by the collective predictions of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. This can lead to more efficient price discovery, especially as more information becomes available. While sportsbooks may initially have an edge, prediction markets can sometimes outperform them, particularly closer to the event date.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi for the Belgium vs. Poland match may differ due to several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and fee structure, all of which can influence price formation. Furthermore, the volume traded on each platform can vary significantly, leading to discrepancies in price discovery. Different information or interpretations of available data among traders on each platform can also contribute to these differences. The liquidity and depth of the market on each platform also play a role, with more liquid markets generally exhibiting tighter spreads.