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Closed: Oct 3, 4:26 PM EST
Polymarket
This event group concerns which team, Belarus or San Marino, will score more goals in the second half of a UEFA Nations League match, including any added stoppage time. A draw is also a possible outcome if both teams score the same number of goals in the second half. The markets specify a clear hierarchy of data sources for resolution.
In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Belarus and San Marino, scheduled for October 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Belarus" if Belarus score more goals than San Marino in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if Belarus and San Marino score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "San Marino" if San Marino score more goals than Belarus in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Belarus and San Marino, scheduled for October 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Belarus" if Belarus score more goals than San Marino in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if Belarus and San Marino score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "San Marino" if San Marino score more goals than Belarus in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Predict, often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while prediction markets allow anyone to express their view, leading to prices driven by supply and demand. This can result in discrepancies, especially when public sentiment strongly diverges from expert opinion. It's possible to find arbitrage opportunities by comparing prices across both types of venues, though transaction costs and market liquidity should be considered when evaluating this market.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Predict can differ due to several factors. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying levels of expertise and information. Polymarket may have a higher concentration of sophisticated traders, while Predict might be more influenced by casual bettors. Furthermore, the liquidity and trading volume on each platform can impact price discovery. Differences in the fees charged by each platform and the specific rules governing trading can also contribute to price divergence. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Belarus to win the second half? at 98, while Predict leans toward Belarus to win the second half? at n/a.