TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 4:31 PM EST
Kalshi
This prediction group concerns the outcome of a basketball game between BC Vienna and Zadar in the ABA League. Users are predicting which team will win the game, with potential for a 50-50 resolution if the game is canceled without a reschedule.
In the upcoming ABA League game, scheduled for October 16 at 11:00AM ET: If the BC Vienna win, the market will resolve to "BC Vienna". If the Zadar win, the market will resolve to "Zadar". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
The market resolves to Yes for the respective team if they win the designated Adriatic ABA basketball game scheduled for October 16, 2026, at 2:30 PM EDT. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the market remains open and resolves based on the final result. If the game is cancelled or does not start within 48 hours, all markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated with the Governing League, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders. This can lead to differences compared to traditional sportsbook odds, which are typically set by a smaller team of professionals. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public betting patterns and risk management more heavily, while prediction markets tend to focus more purely on the probability of an event occurring. This market’s odds may diverge from sportsbooks due to differing information or interpretations of available data. It’s important to compare both to gain a comprehensive view.
Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi for this market can differ due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different pool of traders with varying expertise and risk tolerance. Trading volume also plays a role; lower volume on one platform can lead to greater price volatility. Furthermore, the specific mechanisms for price discovery—how traders can buy and sell contracts—differ between Polymarket and Kalshi, influencing how quickly and efficiently information is incorporated into the price. These factors contribute to the observed price discrepancies.