TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 11:08 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks various thresholds of points scored in the final quarter of a college football matchup, allowing participants to speculate on how high-scoring the closing period might be. The outcome depends solely on the combined score achieved in that specific segment of play.
All markets resolve based on the total points scored by both teams during the 4th quarter (excluding overtime) of the Baylor vs UCF college football game scheduled for Oct 30, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific numerical threshold: if the combined score exceeds the threshold (e.g., 2.5, 5.5, up to 27.5 points), that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Postponements that commence within 48 hours of the original start time are treated as valid, with resolution based on the final official result. If the game does not start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the threshold specified.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, and can sometimes differ from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance their own risk, while this market is driven purely by what participants believe will happen. If a significant number of people believe the total points will be higher or lower than the sportsbook’s line, the price on Kalshi will adjust accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts leading up to the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of the total points scored in the 4th quarter falling within a specific range. As more traders buy contracts predicting a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts to reflect the evolving expectations of participants, providing a real-time assessment of the likely score.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point total scored in the 4th quarter of the Baylor vs UCF game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The market will settle based on the official game statistics as reported by a trusted sports data source. Traders holding contracts that correctly predict the outcome will receive a payout based on the contract's price at the time of resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Baylor or UCF would likely cause movement, as would updates on weather conditions that could affect scoring. Changes in public perception, driven by expert analysis or social media discussion, could also impact trading activity. Late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions might also cause shifts in the price as traders react to new information and adjust their predictions.