TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 11:08 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the outcome of a college football game between Baylor and UCF, specifically analyzing how much one team might win by in the second half of play. Each market represents a different point margin threshold that must be exceeded for the outcome to be considered valid.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the second half (including overtime) of the Baylor vs UCF college football game scheduled for October 30, 2026. Each market has a specific point differential threshold; if the winning team exceeds that threshold by more than the stated margin, the market resolves to 'Yes.' If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, it remains active and resolves based on the official result. If the game does not start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price. The markets cover a range of possible margins from 2.5 to 17.5 points for both teams, allowing participants to bet on various degrees of victory for either Baylor or UCF in the second half.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set their lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of people believe a particular outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the price will move accordingly. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities and can be influenced by new information or changing sentiment, so discrepancies can occur.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring. Buyers are essentially betting that the spread will be *less* than the contract price, while sellers are betting it will be *more*. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectations of all participants. This creates a real-time assessment of the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread for the second half of the Baylor vs UCF game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Contracts predicting a spread closer to the actual result will have a higher payout value. The exact payout will depend on the final spread and the contract price at the time of purchase, but the outcome will be based on the officially recorded score.
Several factors could influence the price of this market until it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Baylor or UCF teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team's playing style, could also shift the market. Additionally, any major shifts in public opinion or betting trends, as reflected in sportsbook odds, could influence trading activity on Kalshi and move the price. Unexpected coaching decisions or in-game performance could also be catalysts.