TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 2:33 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Baylor or Kansas specifically within the second quarter of their college football game. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team during that quarter alone.
These markets resolve based on the point differential between Baylor and Kansas exclusively during the second quarter of their college football game scheduled for October 24, 2026. For any market to resolve as 'Yes,' the winning team must exceed the specified point spread threshold within that quarter. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, the markets remain active and resolve according to the official result. Should the game fail to start within the 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price. Only points scored during the second quarter count toward these outcomes, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the NCAA or ownership of associated trademarks and logos.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from initial sportsbook lines which are often set by analysts. Sportsbooks establish odds based on power ratings, injuries, and other factors, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than traditional polls or expert forecasts, but it's important to remember both represent different forms of forecasting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the 2nd quarter spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that specific spread occurring. Buyers are expressing confidence in that outcome, while sellers are betting against it. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by traders reacting to news, analysis, and their own insights. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to reflect the collective intelligence of the market participants regarding the game’s outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread difference in the 2nd quarter of the Baylor vs Kansas game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Contracts predicting the actual spread will settle at 100, while those predicting a different spread will settle at 0. The resolution process relies on publicly available game data to ensure an objective and transparent outcome for all traders in this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Baylor or Kansas would likely cause a shift in the spread. Unexpected coaching decisions or changes in team strategy could also impact trader sentiment. Game-day weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team's style of play, might also move the market. Finally, even significant public betting patterns in sportsbooks could influence traders on Kalshi, leading to adjustments in the price of contracts for the Baylor vs Kansas 2nd quarter spread.