TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 2:14 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks various point spreads for the second half of a college football game between Baylor and Arizona State. Each outcome represents different margins of victory for either team during that specific half of play.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the second half (including overtime) of the Baylor vs Arizona State college football game scheduled for October 3, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the specified team wins the second half by more than the indicated point margin. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of its original time, markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, all markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a particular outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price in this market will adjust accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts, offering potential value for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability that the actual second-half spread will fall on the corresponding side of the spread. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their predictions are correct and lose if they are wrong. This dynamic creates a market-driven assessment of the likely outcome, constantly adjusting as new information and opinions enter the system.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread for the second half of the Baylor vs Arizona State game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Contracts predicting the correct side of the spread will settle at $100, while those predicting the incorrect side will settle at $0. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics as reported by a trusted sports data provider.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Baylor or Arizona State teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team strategy or coaching decisions could also impact the perceived likelihood of different outcomes. Furthermore, public perception and betting trends in traditional sportsbooks can influence trading activity in this market, as traders react to evolving information and sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions on game day could also play a role.