TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 2:10 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Baylor or Arizona State will win their college football game scheduled for October 3, 2026. Currently, Kalshi gives Baylor a 99.0% probability of winning, while Arizona State is at 2.0%. The market will resolve based on the outcome of the Baylor vs Arizona St. college football game, as reported by the official result. Keep an eye on the game itself, as the market’s resolution is directly tied to the final score when the game is played on October 3, 2026.
The event resolves based on the result of the Baylor vs Arizona State college football game scheduled for October 3, 2026. If either team wins the game as officially recorded, the corresponding market will resolve to Yes. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the market remains open and resolves based on the final result. If the game is cancelled or does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, the market resolves to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or when public opinion shifts. These differences can arise from varying information sources, analytical approaches, or simply differing levels of confidence in a particular outcome. Examining both can provide a more comprehensive view of the potential results.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of its probability. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a market maker system to ensure there are always bids and asks available, facilitating continuous trading. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities accordingly.
This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Baylor vs Arizona State game, as officially reported by a trusted source. The platform will then determine the winning contract and distribute payouts to those who correctly predicted the outcome. It’s important to note that the resolution process relies on publicly available information to ensure a fair and transparent outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any significant news regarding player injuries, coaching changes, or team performance could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about game conditions, such as weather forecasts, might also have an impact. Furthermore, large-volume trades by individual participants or groups could create short-term price fluctuations. Public opinion, as reflected in media coverage and social media trends, can also play a role in shaping the market's direction. Monitoring these signals can help you understand potential shifts in the probabilities.