TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 1:52 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional women's soccer match between two teams in Germany's top league. The result is determined by the final score after the standard playing time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts. Markets will adjust fairly if the match is significantly delayed or canceled.
The event resolves based on the result of the Bayern vs Stuttgart professional German Women's Bundesliga soccer match scheduled for October 19, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If Bayern wins, the 'Bayern' market resolves to Yes. If Stuttgart wins, the 'Stuttgart' market resolves to Yes. If the match ends in a tie, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price according to the platform's rules. The event exclusively considers the result after regular time and does not include extra time or penalty shootout outcomes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance betting action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on individuals directly expressing their beliefs about the outcome. If there’s a significant discrepancy, it could indicate that the market believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular result. It’s common to see prediction markets move more efficiently as new information emerges, potentially offering a more accurate assessment than static sportsbook lines.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective probability assessment of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe Bayern is likely to win, the price of contracts representing a Bayern win will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information efficiently.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Bayern vs Stuttgart match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The final score and official result will be used to determine which outcome, if any, pays out to contract holders. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand the market’s resolution.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Bayern or Stuttgart would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact the perceived probabilities. Unexpected announcements related to the match, such as a change in venue or kickoff time, could also trigger price fluctuations. Major upsets in other relevant matches or broader football news could also indirectly affect the market as traders reassess their predictions.