TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 8:32 PM EST
Opinion
This market refers to the Bundesliga match between Bayern München (BAY) and RB Leipzig (LEI), scheduled for 2026-10-17 16:30 UTC. - BAY: If Bayern München wins, the outcome is settled as "Yes"; otherwise "No". - DRAW: If the match ends in a draw, the outcome is "Yes". - LEI: If RB Leipzig wins, the outcome is "Yes"; otherwise "No". Settlement will be based on the result at the end of regular time (90 minutes) plus stoppage time. If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match is played and completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, the DRAW option will resolve to "Yes", while both BAY and LEI options will resolve to "No". The primary settlement source will be the official result published by Bundesliga. If the governing body or event organizers have not published the final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus from credible sources may be used instead. Note: Opinion will resolve strictly based on the first officially published result from the designated source. Any subsequent revisions will not affect this resolution. Source: https://www.bundesliga.com/
This market refers to the Bundesliga match between Bayern München (BAY) and RB Leipzig (LEI), scheduled for 2026-10-17 16:30 UTC. - BAY: If Bayern München wins, the outcome is settled as "Yes"; otherwise "No". - DRAW: If the match ends in a draw, the outcome is "Yes". - LEI: If RB Leipzig wins, the outcome is "Yes"; otherwise "No". Settlement will be based on the result at the end of regular time (90 minutes) plus stoppage time. If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match is played and completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, the DRAW option will resolve to "Yes", while both BAY and LEI options will resolve to "No". The primary settlement source will be the official result published by Bundesliga. If the governing body or event organizers have not published the final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus from credible sources may be used instead. Note: Opinion will resolve strictly based on the first officially published result from the designated source. Any subsequent revisions will not affect this resolution. Source: https://www.bundesliga.com/
Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, representing their profit margin. This market, driven by the collective wisdom of traders on Opinion, aims to reflect the true probability of each outcome, though biases can still exist. Discrepancies can arise due to differing opinions, information access, or risk appetites between prediction market participants and sportsbook oddsmakers. Analyzing these differences can reveal valuable insights into public sentiment and potential value bets.
On Opinion, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of traders about the likelihood of that outcome. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. Conversely, increased selling pressure lowers the price and reduces the implied probability. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Bayern München versus RB Leipzig match, as reported by a recognized sports authority. The market will determine which outcome—a Bayern München win, an RB Leipzig win, or a draw—actually occurred during the match. All outstanding contracts will then be settled accordingly based on the verified result.
Several factors could influence this market before Oct 17, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Bayern München or RB Leipzig would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments announced by the managers, or even weather conditions on match day could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected news related to team morale or internal conflicts could also play a role, as could major shifts in public opinion or expert predictions about the match’s likely outcome.