TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

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2,984,028,936

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$1,879,276,037

410,833

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40,345

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4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

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63%

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Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Nürnberg
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Nürnberg?

Volume:
$870,982

Leverkusen

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 5:44 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Leverkusen

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$329,559
N/A
N/A
$153,208
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

View
100%
17%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$77,335
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Nuremberg

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$238,513
N/A
N/A
$140,030
Settled
No
polymarket

1. FC Nürnberg

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$83,364
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$132,492
N/A
N/A
$61,529
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Nürnberg)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,719
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks whether Bayer 04 Leverkusen will win their DFB Pokal match against 1. FC Nürnberg on October 28, 2026. Currently, the consensus probability of Leverkusen winning is 100.0%, aggregating views from Polymarket and Kalshi. The market will resolve based on the outcome of the game after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as defined by the official result, according to the resolution source. Keep an eye on the match itself on October 28, 2026, to see if Leverkusen secures the win as strongly predicted by the market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi offers separate markets for each possible outcome (Leverkusen win, Nuremberg win, Draw), while Polymarket offers markets for each team winning and a draw. Additionally, cancellation handling differs.Hero tip: Consider the differing market structures when trading. Kalshi requires you to pick the correct outcome, while Polymarket markets resolve 'No' if the game is cancelled.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Polymarket focuses on a single team winning or a draw. If the game is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to 'No'. "If Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"."
  • Kalshi: Kalshi has separate markets for each outcome (Leverkusen win, Nürnberg win, Draw). All outcomes resolve to 'Yes' if they occur. "If Leverkusen wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Nuremberg wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie...then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming DFB-Pokal game, scheduled for Wednesday, October 28, 2026 between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and 1. FC Nürnberg.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the result of the Leverkusen vs Nuremberg professional DFB Pokal soccer match originally scheduled for October 28, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. If Leverkusen wins the match within this timeframe, the 'Leverkusen' market resolves to Yes. If Nuremberg wins under the same conditions, the 'Nuremberg' market resolves to Yes. Should the match conclude in a tie after regular time, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the event rules. The markets exclusively consider the result after normal time and do not account for outcomes determined during extra time or penalty shootouts.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probability of various outcomes for the Leverkusen vs. Nürnberg match. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $870,982, with $869,986 traded in the last 24 hours. The consensus view, based on trading activity, shows a strong expectation for one outcome, though opinions differ between the two venues. This allows users to see how predictions are evolving and compare the collective wisdom of traders on each platform regarding the match's result.

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect a more diverse range of information than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks typically set lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while prediction markets aggregate the opinions of many individuals, potentially incorporating insights not captured by conventional methods. This can lead to differences in probabilities, as prediction markets can be sensitive to news, sentiment, and even subtle shifts in public perception regarding this market. It’s a way to see what the crowd thinks.