TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 1:06 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a soccer match between Barnsley and Oxford United, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a decisive lead, defined by specific goal differences, within the standard match duration. The result is determined solely by the final score after regular time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event resolves based on the goal differential by which either Barnsley or Oxford United wins the match scheduled for October 31, 2026, in the EFL League One. Barnsley must win by more than 2.5 goals for the first market to resolve positively, while a narrower margin of over 1.5 goals is sufficient for the second market. Conversely, Oxford United must win by more than 1.5 goals for the third market to resolve positively, with an even greater margin of over 2.5 goals required for the fourth market. All resolutions are determined after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty phases. The markets operate independently, meaning each evaluates its specific condition without influence from the others. Kalshi clarifies that it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a ‘vig’ or commission into their odds, which represents their profit margin. This market, driven by the collective intelligence of traders on Kalshi, aims to reflect the true probability of the outcome, potentially offering more favorable odds for informed bettors. However, sportsbook odds are readily available and represent another data point for analysis when considering the Barnsley vs Oxford match.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the spread in the Barnsley vs Oxford match. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that specific spread occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts, reflecting the evolving consensus. The current price represents the market’s best estimate of the likely outcome, based on the aggregated activity of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the actual point difference between Barnsley and Oxford United as reported by official sources. The market will settle to 100 if the actual spread matches the contract price, and proportionally to the difference if it deviates. Traders holding contracts will receive or pay out based on the final result.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to Oct 31, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Barnsley or Oxford United would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about coaching changes or significant team news are also potential catalysts. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for anyone looking to trade this market effectively.