TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 3:31 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether specific players or defensive units score at least one touchdown during an upcoming professional football game between Baltimore and Cleveland. The outcome depends on individual player performance or defensive scoring plays throughout the entire match, including any overtime periods.
All markets resolve based on whether designated players or defensive units score one or more touchdowns during the full game, including overtime. Each contract is designated as 'protected,' meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but none after halftime (including overtime), the contract resolves to the pre-game fair price unless the player achieves the required touchdown count, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract always settles based on actual statistics, irrespective of first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates is subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protection mechanism applies exclusively to full-game contracts with an 'at least' payout criterion. Passing touchdowns do not count toward the passer's total, and team defense/special-teams selections settle purely on actual touchdowns without player participation exceptions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes – in this case, the number of touchdowns scored. The price of each contract reflects the market's probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective belief. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe an outcome is likely, they'll bid up the price of contracts representing that outcome, and vice versa. This creates a dynamic and real-time assessment of probabilities.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of touchdowns scored in the Baltimore versus Cleveland game, as officially recorded by the NFL, will determine the winning contracts. It’s important to note that the resolution is based on official game statistics and not on any subjective interpretation. Traders will be able to see the final result and the corresponding payout for their contracts after the game concludes and the data is verified.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Baltimore or Cleveland teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also impact trading activity. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or significant shifts in public sentiment, as reflected in sports news and analysis, could also play a role. The closer we get to Oct 18, 2026, the more sensitive this market will become to new information.