TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:14 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game between Baltimore and Cleveland. It focuses on how many rushing yards each designated player accumulates during the match. The outcome depends on whether the player's rushing yards meet certain financial thresholds tied to contract payouts.
The event consists of two separate markets, each tied to a different player’s rushing yard performance in the same Baltimore vs. Cleveland Pro Football game scheduled for October 18, 2026. For each market, Yes contracts pay $0.0025 per rushing yard recorded by the respective player, up to a maximum payout of $1.00, which corresponds to a cap of 400 rushing yards. No contracts pay $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Payouts are scalar and proportional to the holder’s position size, meaning they scale linearly with the number of rushing yards. For instance, 80 rushing yards would result in a Yes payout of $0.20 and a No payout of $0.80, while zero yards would pay out $0.00 for Yes and $1.00 for No. Both markets resolve to Yes if the specified payout conditions are met, otherwise they resolve to No. The rules clarify that Kalshi is not affiliated with the NFL, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven by traders directly expressing their beliefs about the likelihood of different outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly before significant events or when new information emerges. Analyzing these differences can sometimes reveal insights into where the market believes sportsbooks may be mispricing the probability of certain results.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the current market consensus on its probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in each outcome, and can influence how quickly prices react to new information or breaking news related to the Baltimore and Cleveland teams.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official NFL statistics for rushing yards in the Baltimore versus Cleveland game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final rushing yard totals for each team will be used to determine which contracts settle positively. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics as recorded by the NFL, and any disputes will be handled according to Kalshi’s standard procedures for verifying event outcomes.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Injury reports for key running backs on either the Baltimore or Cleveland teams would be significant catalysts. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they predict inclement conditions, could also affect the expected rushing yardage. Unexpected news regarding coaching strategies or offensive line changes could also shift trader sentiment. Finally, any late-breaking news about player availability or team dynamics could lead to substantial price fluctuations in this market.