TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:14 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the number of receptions achieved by specific players during an upcoming professional football game. Participants can bet on whether each player's reception count will hit certain thresholds, with payouts scaling based on performance. The structure rewards higher reception counts with progressively larger returns.
Each market operates as a scalar prediction mechanism where Yes contracts pay out according to a predefined schedule tied to the official number of receptions a designated player achieves in the specified game. Payouts increase non-linearly with higher reception counts, capped at $1.00 per contract. The payout formula uses a cubic scaling function to determine returns based on receptions up to a maximum of 14, after which the full $1.00 is paid out. No contracts receive the remainder of the $1.00 stake not allocated to Yes payouts. All markets resolve based solely on official game statistics, with Kalshi explicitly disclaiming any formal association with the governing league. The structure ensures that higher performance yields proportionally greater financial rewards within defined limits.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. As more information emerges – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – this market tends to adjust more rapidly than traditional sportsbooks. It's common to see discrepancies, especially closer to the event, as traders incorporate the latest news and insights into their predictions. Examining these differences can offer valuable perspectives on potential value.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more a particular outcome is believed to be likely, the higher its contract price will be. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and trading contracts accordingly. This dynamic pricing system allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions in real-time, providing a constantly updated assessment of the event's potential results.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception totals for relevant players will be sourced from official game statistics and verified against credible public sources. The market will then determine the winning contracts based on those official figures. It’s important to note that the resolution process relies on publicly available data, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the outcome. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results to understand how this market settles.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Injury reports for key wide receivers or tight ends on either the Browns or Ravens would be major catalysts. Changes in quarterback performance or play-calling strategies could also shift expectations. Unexpected weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, might affect passing volume and, consequently, reception totals. Even news about defensive matchups or coaching adjustments could impact trader sentiment. Monitoring these signals and assessing their potential impact on player performance is crucial for making informed predictions in this market.