TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:35 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of a specific player in an upcoming football game, focusing on whether he achieves various levels of receiving yardage. The outcome depends entirely on the player's statistical production during the game, with different thresholds defining separate markets.
All markets share a common protected contract structure for Denzel Boston in the Baltimore vs Cleveland game scheduled for Oct 18, 2026. Each market resolves to Yes only if Boston records the specified receiving yardage threshold (ranging from 15+ to 140+) in the full game including overtime. The protection mechanism ensures that if Boston participates in at least one play during the first half but none after halftime (including overtime), the contract resolves to the pre-game fair price unless he meets his specific yardage target, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. If he plays in any second-half play, all markets settle based on actual statistics regardless of first-half involvement. Penalty-nullified plays and non-participation both follow specific non-participation rules, with the protected designation applying exclusively to full-game 'at least' yardage criteria. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to profit by balancing action on both sides, while this market allows traders to express their own beliefs about the outcome. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, the price in this market will move accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts. Examining these differences can be a valuable exercise for informed forecasting.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage totals for the Baltimore versus Cleveland game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final receiving yards for each player will be sourced from official NFL statistics. The market will settle to the contract closest to the actual total receiving yards achieved during the game. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout based on the contract’s price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key wide receivers or quarterbacks on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they predict adverse conditions that could limit passing attempts, could also impact trading activity. Unexpected news about player matchups or defensive strategies could also shift expectations. Finally, large-volume trades from informed participants could signal a change in sentiment and move the market accordingly. Monitoring these signals is crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market.