TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:06 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets evaluate whether Deshaun Watson will achieve specific passing yard thresholds in a football game between Baltimore and Cleveland. The outcomes depend on Watson's performance, with various benchmarks set for his passing yardage. Each market has unique criteria for resolution based on Watson's participation and performance metrics.
All contracts are designated as protected, meaning if Deshaun Watson participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the first half—including overtime—the contract resolves to the fair price prior to the game's kickoff unless he meets or exceeds the specified passing yard threshold. If Watson participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics, irrespective of his first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates is subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and this event considers full game passing yards, including overtime.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven by traders directly expressing their beliefs about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists, it may indicate that the market believes a sportsbook has mispriced the probability of a particular outcome. However, it's important to remember that both represent probabilities as perceived by different groups.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official passing yardage for the game between Baltimore and Cleveland is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final passing yard total, as recorded by official NFL statistics, will determine which contracts pay out and at what value. Traders will be able to see the final result and their contract payouts shortly after the game concludes and the official statistics are released.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also impact trading activity. Late-breaking news about team strategies or defensive adjustments could also shift market sentiment. Even public perception, as reflected in analyst predictions or social media discussions, can contribute to price fluctuations.