TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 3:57 PM EST
Kalshi
This event ties financial outcomes to the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game, using fantasy points as the metric. Participants can bet on whether a player's performance will result in a higher or lower payout based on their points scored.
Each market operates as a scalar betting event where the payout for 'Yes' contracts is determined by multiplying the player's Points Per Reception (PPR) fantasy points by $0.01, rounding to the nearest cent with half cents rounded up, and capping the payout between $0.00 and $1.00. The 'No' contract payout is calculated as $1.00 minus the 'Yes' payout. If a player does not receive a fantasy-point figure from Sleeper for the specified week, they are considered to have scored 0.0 points, resulting in a 'Yes' payout of $0.00 and a 'No' payout of $1.00. All payouts are proportional to the holder's position size, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the NFL.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different fantasy point ladder outcomes for Deshaun Watson. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust dynamically. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more a particular outcome is believed to be likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will climb, and vice versa. This creates a real-time assessment of probabilities.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official fantasy point total for Deshaun Watson in the Browns vs Ravens game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final fantasy score, as calculated by a major fantasy sports provider, will determine which contracts settle at 100 and which settle at 0. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct fantasy point ladder will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for incorrect outcomes will forfeit their investment. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding Deshaun Watson’s health, such as an injury report, would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in the projected weather conditions for the Browns vs Ravens game could also influence expectations, as weather impacts passing offenses. Unexpected news about key players on either team, or strategic adjustments announced by the coaching staff, could also shift trader sentiment. Finally, general public perception and analysis from sports commentators could all contribute to movement in this market before Oct 18, 2026.