TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 1:55 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting the margin of victory for either Baltimore or Cleveland within the first quarter of their scheduled football game. Outcomes depend solely on the point differential achieved during that specific timeframe, ignoring any scoring that occurs after the first quarter ends.
All markets resolve based exclusively on the point differential between Baltimore and Cleveland during the first quarter of play in their game scheduled for October 18, 2026. Each market specifies a different threshold for the winning team's margin of victory, ranging from narrow advantages like over 2.5 points to larger margins such as over 10.5 points. Only points scored within the first quarter count toward resolution, regardless of any scoring in subsequent quarters. If the specified threshold is met or exceeded by the winning team during that period, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets operate independently, meaning each threshold must be evaluated separately against the actual first-quarter result.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market’s prices are driven purely by supply and demand from traders expressing their beliefs. You may find that this market provides an alternative perspective on the likely outcome, potentially identifying discrepancies where the crowd disagrees with professional oddsmakers. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither guarantees the actual result.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will settle based on the actual first-quarter spread of the Baltimore versus Cleveland game. The official result, as reported by a reputable sports data provider, will determine which contracts pay out and at what value. Traders will be able to see the final settlement details on Kalshi after the game concludes and the information is verified.
Several factors could influence this market leading up to the game. News regarding key player injuries for either Baltimore or Cleveland would likely cause significant shifts in the odds. Unexpected weather forecasts, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also impact the perceived advantage of either team. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale could sway trader sentiment. Even public perception, as reflected in social media and expert analysis, can contribute to price movements in this market.