TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 3:26 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on whether specific players or defensive units score at least one touchdown during an upcoming football game between Baltimore and Buffalo. Touchdowns are a key scoring method in football, and this market tracks individual or unit performance in achieving them.
Each contract is designated as protected, meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the conclusion of the first half, including overtime, the contract resolves to the fair price prior to the opening kickoff unless the player records the required number of touchdowns. If the player participates in at least one play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics, regardless of first-half participation. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates remains subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an at-least payout criterion, and the event considers the full game including overtime. Passing touchdowns do not count as touchdowns scored by the passer, and team defense/special-teams selections settle on actual touchdowns without the player participation exception applying to them.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows traders to express their own independent beliefs. Often, you’ll find that prediction markets are more accurate than traditional point spreads, especially when considering the information aggregated from a diverse group of participants. However, sportsbook odds are readily available and provide a useful benchmark for comparison.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. Traders can set their own buy or sell prices, creating a dynamic and responsive market for predicting the total touchdowns scored in the game. The current market price reflects the aggregated predictions of all traders.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of touchdowns scored in the Baltimore versus Buffalo game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and accurate outcome. Traders will be able to see the final result and the payout of their contracts shortly after the game concludes and the official statistics are released.
Several factors could influence this market leading up to game day. News regarding key player injuries for either the Baltimore or Buffalo teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also impact the expected number of touchdowns. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or changes in offensive personnel could also shift trader sentiment. Finally, any major shifts in public opinion, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, could also move the market.