TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
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VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 4:25 PM EST
Kalshi
This market asks whether Buffalo will win their November 1, 2026 professional football game against Baltimore by more than 3.5 points. Currently, the probability of Buffalo winning by over 3.5 points on Kalshi is 99.0%. The market will resolve based on the final point differential in the Baltimore vs Buffalo Pro Football game, as determined by the official game results. Keep an eye on the game itself, scheduled for November 1, 2026, as the outcome will be determined by the final score and whether Buffalo exceeds the 3.5-point margin.
The event consists of multiple sub-markets, each defined by a specific point differential threshold for either team winning the game. A market resolves to 'Yes' if the winning team exceeds the stated point margin; otherwise, it resolves to 'No.' The outcomes cover a range of margins from narrow victories (e.g., winning by more than 1.5 points) to decisive wins (e.g., winning by more than 20.5 points), providing granular opportunities for participants to assess the potential scale of the victory. All markets are tied to the same game and date, with resolution contingent solely on the final score. The secondary disclaimer clarifies that the platform hosting these markets has no official affiliation with the league governing the sport.
Currently, the implied probability of Buffalo winning by over 20.5 points, as reflected in this market, differs from some analysts' predictions. While several sports analysts favor Buffalo, the degree to which they anticipate a win of this magnitude varies. This market provides a unique perspective, aggregating the wisdom of the crowd and offering a real-time assessment of potential outcomes, distinct from pre-game punditry. It's important to remember that predictions are not guarantees, and this market reflects the collective belief of traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome of the NFL spread. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating a greater probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of the game's potential spread.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Baltimore versus Buffalo game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be determined by the official game statistics, and the market will settle based on whether Buffalo wins by over 20.5 points. The platform will verify the outcome against these publicly available sources to ensure accuracy and transparency.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 2, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries on either team, changes in weather forecasts for the game location, or significant shifts in public sentiment could all influence trading activity. Unexpected coaching decisions or late-breaking news about team strategies could also cause the market to react. Furthermore, large-volume trades from informed participants could also lead to noticeable price movements in this market.