TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game between Baltimore and Buffalo. Participants can bet on whether each designated player will achieve a certain level of receptions during the match, with payouts scaling based on the actual number of receptions recorded.
Each market operates as a scalar betting mechanism where Yes contracts pay $0.05 for every reception recorded by the specified player during the Baltimore vs Buffalo game scheduled for Nov 1, 2026, up to a maximum payout of $1.00. No contracts pay the remainder, calculated as $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Payouts are capped at 20 receptions, ensuring that the Yes payout never exceeds $1.00. For example, if a player records 8 receptions, the Yes payout would be $0.40 and the No payout $0.60. If zero receptions are recorded, Yes pays $0.00 and No pays $1.00. All payouts are proportional to the size of each holder's position in the market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their predictions. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular player, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of success. Conversely, selling contracts lowers the price. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds are constantly updated based on the latest information and trader sentiment. The current volume indicates active trading and a degree of uncertainty among participants.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official game statistics are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception totals for each player will be sourced from official NFL data and used to determine which contracts pay out. The market will settle based on the verified number of receptions achieved by each player during the game, as officially recorded by the NFL. Traders will be able to view the resolution details on Kalshi following the game’s completion.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in weather conditions, or adjustments to team strategies could cause the odds to shift. Unexpected developments during pre-game warmups, such as a key player being ruled out, would likely have a significant impact. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants or public sentiment swings can also move the market. Monitoring these signals and staying informed about the latest team news will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market.