TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 4:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the number of receptions achieved by specific players during an upcoming professional football game. Participants can bet on whether each player's performance will meet certain thresholds, with payouts varying based on the exact count of receptions.
Each market evaluates player performance in a specific football game, with payouts determined by the number of receptions a designated player achieves. For every player market, Yes contracts pay according to a predefined schedule that increases with each reception, up to a maximum payout of $1.00 for 14 or more receptions. The payout formula uses a cubic scaling based on the minimum of actual receptions and 14, divided by 14, multiplied by 10000 and floored, then divided by 10000. No contracts pay the difference between $1.00 and the Yes payout. All markets resolve to Yes if the defined conditions are met, with Kalshi explicitly stating no official affiliation with the governing league. Trademarks and brand names remain property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own insights. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public opinion diverges from the sportsbook’s initial assessment. It’s common to see this market incorporate information and adjust more rapidly to news and developments than sportsbook lines, though both attempt to forecast the same underlying event.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the official NFL statistics for receptions will be used to determine which outcomes resolve positively. The resolution will be based on the final, official numbers reported by the NFL following the completion of the game. Traders will be able to see the official results and how they align with their positions once the resolution process is complete. This ensures a transparent and verifiable outcome for all participants.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or even weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected performance from players in previous games, or adjustments to defensive schemes by opposing teams, could also lead to price movements. Furthermore, late-breaking news about a player’s health or availability – even on game day – could cause substantial shifts in the market. Monitoring these signals and their potential impact on player reception totals is key to understanding how this market might evolve.