TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 4:35 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks whether specific players will achieve a longest reception beyond a set threshold in an upcoming football game. Each market focuses on a different player and their performance metric, allowing participants to speculate on individual player achievements during the match.
Each market resolves to Yes if the specified player records a longest reception exceeding the stated yardage threshold in the Baltimore vs Buffalo Pro Football game scheduled for Nov 1, 2026. If a player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a player takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves based on the actual longest reception recorded during the game. All markets are independent, and each player's performance is evaluated separately against their respective thresholds.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates a broader range of information and opinions from many participants. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Polls and analysts’ predictions also often diverge from both sportsbook and prediction market pricing, highlighting the unique insights offered by each approach.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in a particular player having the longest reception. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance of success. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the market. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The player with the longest reception in the Baltimore vs. Buffalo game, as officially recorded by the NFL, will determine the winning contract. The official NFL game statistics will serve as the source for determining the longest reception, ensuring a transparent and verifiable resolution process. Traders should monitor official sources for the final game results.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries to key receivers on either team would likely cause significant shifts in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions that favor a passing or running game, could also impact the market. Furthermore, late-breaking reports about player matchups or coaching strategies could influence trader behavior. Unexpected news or developments related to the players involved will likely drive price movements in this market.