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Closed: Nov 1, 5:10 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on whether Josh Allen will achieve specific passing yard thresholds during the upcoming football game between Baltimore and Buffalo. Each market corresponds to a different yardage milestone, allowing participants to speculate on Allen's performance level in that particular matchup.
All contracts are designated as protected, meaning if Josh Allen participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the first half (including overtime), the contract resolves to the fair price prior to the game's kickoff unless he meets the specified passing yard threshold, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. If he participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates remains subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and this event uses full game passing yards including overtime. Kalshi is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and perspectives beyond those considered by traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbook odds are set by professional oddsmakers, this market allows a broader range of participants to express their beliefs about the likely outcome. You may find that this market’s implied probabilities differ from those offered by sportsbooks, particularly as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. It's common to see convergence between the two as the event approaches, but divergences can present potential value for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different passing yard totals. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that specific outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a decentralized mechanism, allowing traders to set their own prices and create liquidity, influencing the overall market price based on supply and demand for each contract.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official passing yard totals for the Baltimore versus Buffalo game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final passing yardage, as recorded by official NFL statistics, will determine which contracts pay out. The market will settle based on the actual, verified passing yards achieved during the game, providing a clear and objective determination of the winning contracts. Traders should monitor official sources for the final game statistics to understand the resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly those predicting adverse conditions for passing, could also shift expectations. Pre-game reports on defensive strategies or adjustments could impact the perceived likelihood of high or low passing yardage totals. Finally, significant betting activity or large trades within this market itself can create momentum and influence prices as we approach Nov 2, 2026.