TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 3:57 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on evaluating Josh Allen's passing performance in an upcoming football game between Baltimore and Buffalo. They measure how many touchdowns he throws during the match, with each market setting a different threshold for success.
All markets evaluate Josh Allen's passing touchdowns in the Baltimore vs Buffalo game scheduled for Nov 1, 2026, with varying thresholds from 1 to 5 touchdowns required for resolution to 'Yes'. A key secondary rule applies uniformly: if Allen is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. However, once Allen takes at least one snap—regardless of whether those plays are nullified by penalties—the market resolves strictly based on the actual number of passing touchdowns he records during the game. This consistent framework ensures that markets are settled objectively according to Allen's in-game performance, with special provisions for pre-snap inactivity scenarios.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from initial sportsbook lines which are often set by analysts. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public perception or team biases when establishing their odds, whereas this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It’s common to see prediction market prices move independently of sportsbook odds as new information emerges or as public sentiment shifts, offering a potentially different perspective on the likely outcome of the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, creating a real-time assessment of the likelihood of various passing touchdown totals. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing touchdowns scored in the game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the winning outcome. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results to understand the resolution of this market.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries to quarterbacks or wide receivers would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions unfavorable to passing, could also shift the market. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or defensive adjustments could prompt traders to reassess their predictions. Even public sentiment, as reflected in social media or expert analysis, can contribute to price fluctuations in this market.