TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 1:42 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of a specific quarterback in an upcoming football game, focusing on how many times his passes are intercepted by the opposing team. The outcome depends on whether the quarterback throws a certain number of interceptions during the match.
The event evaluates Josh Allen's passing interceptions in the Baltimore vs. Buffalo Pro Football game scheduled for November 1, 2026, across three tiered markets (1+, 2+, and 3+ interceptions). If Allen records the specified number of interceptions or more, the respective market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. A key secondary rule states that if Allen is active for the game but never takes a snap, the market settles to the fair market price before the game starts. However, once Allen takes at least one snap — even if that play is nullified by a penalty — the market outcome is determined solely by the actual number of passing interceptions recorded during the game. These rules ensure clarity and fairness in resolving the markets based on Allen’s in-game performance.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. While sportsbooks may initially be more influenced by expert analysis, this market can react more quickly to unexpected developments and changes in perceived probabilities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective probability assessment of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe an outcome is likely, they will bid up the price of contracts representing that outcome, and vice versa. This creates a real-time assessment of probabilities.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final number of passing interceptions thrown during the Baltimore versus Buffalo game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective determination of the result. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final outcome and their positions in this market. The event’s results will be publicly available shortly after the game concludes.
Several factors could influence the price action in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant shifts. Weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to be adverse for passing, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, any late-breaking reports about changes in offensive strategies or defensive schemes could move the market. Public sentiment, as reflected in social media or expert analysis, can also play a role in driving price fluctuations before Nov 2, 2026.